World War IV : The Uncontrollable Paradigm Shift

September 17, 2004

Part I: Joining the Battle

On September 11, 2001 planet earth embarked in earnest on what I believe to be World War IV. The Cold War fought directly and by proxy between the USA and the West against the USSR and World Communism being World War III.

World War IV began as the War on Terrorism. Its proper name is Operation Enduring Freedom and the United States engaged in actual ground combat in this war when US Special Forces entered northern Afghanistan and began organizing, training and fighting with the Northern Alliance against the radical Muslim Taliban and alQaeda fighters who were primarily responsible for the attacks of September 11, 2001. We took the prosecution of the war in a military tactic known as preemptive strike to Afghanistan to remove their biggest base of operations. Ultimately as forces were amassed regular ground combat troops like the light infantry 10th Mountain Division, the elite "All American's of the 82nd Airborne Division and the "Screaming Eagles" of the 101st Air Assault Division of the US Army and thousands of US Marines entered the ground war an obliterated the rag tag armies of the terrorist enemy and their benefactors. Afghanistan remains a battleground with intermittent alQaeda terrorist attacks and an unruly group of Afghan warlords hampering efforts to bring the peace the Afghan people want.

As a part of Operation Enduring Freedom in southwest asia, the recent continuation of the 1991 Gulf War, also known as Desert Storm to Liberate Kuwait, began in March 2003. Named Operation Iraqi Freedom this war removed the absolutely barbaric regime of Saddam Hussein and the threat it posted to the entire region in about 45 days. Combat Operations continue to this day, but for all intents and purposes the regime of Saddam was destroyed in one months time from April 19th to May 1st 2003. Virtually the entire massed might of active duty US ground troops with heavy armor and overwhelming air superiority annihilated the Russian trained and equipped army of Republican Guard divisions of Saddam's military.

As the opening strike's of this new world war these major land combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrated to the enemies of freedom that America and its allies still possessed enormous military power. It showed the world that after 8 years of military cutbacks and downsizing America still had the strength and the will to strike back at implacable foes on their own turf half way around the world, even when one of the enemies in Saddam's were assisted by states allegedly on our side, or at least who publicly professing to be on our side. A new book by Bill Gertz entitled "Treachery" reveals that "an initial accounting by the Pentagon in the months after the fall of Baghdad revealed that Saddam covertly acquired between 650,000 and 1 million tons of conventional weapons from foreign sources. The main suppliers were Russia, China and France." We also know that during combat between US-led coalition air forces and the Iraqi defenders around Baghdad Russian technicians were manning Saddam's most recent air defense acquisitions - Russian made GPS jamming devices. The presence of these Russian military technicians so incensed the US that President Bush called Vladimir Putin and told him point blank that we were going to be killing his people if they were not removed from Iraq immediately. Finally on Sunday April 6th just days before US ground forces entered the Baghdad region a Russian diplomatic convoy bolted from the captial and immediately ran into US forces closing in from the west. The convoy was fired upon by US forces but continued with extreme urgen cy, completely refusing to stop on orders from US forces. This convoy removed itself from immediate danger and stopped in a town a little further to the west, a twon now familiar to the world as the most virulent of anti-American post war violence - Fallujah. In Fallujah the Russian technicians were warmly greeted and given all possible assistance, including medical attention. The convoy reported the incident to the Russian Embassy in Damascus Syria and stated that all was well.

The point of this is to demonstrate that virtually from the onset of this war our so-called allies have been acting directly against us, aiding and abetting our enemies. Such actions are nothing less than international treason with respect to public pronouncements of support and condolence following the events of September 11, 2001. However one should not be surprised at these events for there exists a tangible, continuing record of other events which told many observers at the onset that this war would become a real world war, not just against radical Islamic terrorists, but against other states which support them. Afghanistan was the first, then Iraq and now it appears to this writer that Russia is another such an enemy of America, and that in the course of recent events and subsequent to them further events and spoken words indicate that the War on terror may very well become an uncontrollable paradigm shift of World War IV in very short order.

Part II: Historical Perspective

America's terrorist enemy has been the global terrorist organization al Qaeda or Qaedat al-Jihad. It had been led from the beginning by Osama bin Laden. In the late 1990's another radical Islamist from Egypt fused his Egyptian Islamic Jihad organization into Osama's. This man is Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri. There is an interesting part of al-Zawahiri's background which the vast majority of American's are totally ignorant of. I will attempt to remedy this vacuum of pertinent information with a brief historic al perspective from the writing of Mr. J.R. Nyquist and Evgenii Noikov.

To begin with Noikov wrote the following in The Jamestown Foundation in January of this year:

"The Arabic television channel Al Jazeera broadcast an audiotape on December 19, 2003, that was said to be from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri, the right hand man of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. In it, Zawahiri claimed that his group was chasing Americans everywhere, including in the United States. This claim helped raise the terror threat level."

Mr. Noikov continues by stating that Russian intelligence knows exactly where al-Zawahiri is because they probably remain in direct communication with him. 


The answer is because in December of 1996 the Russian Federation intelligence service, the FSB/KGB, took Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri into custody while he was visiting Chechnya and kept him for the next six months, finally releasing him in May of 1997. This time under total Russian FSB/KGB control significantly altered al-Zawahiri's focus of terrorist operations. As Noikov writes, this "led to a change in Zawahiri's political orientation. Long talks with Russian intelligence officers "forced a critical change in his lethal planning. ...America, not Egypt, became the target."

None should find it odd them that within a very few days of the ending of the situation at the school in Beslan, Russia and two days prior to the third anniversary of 9/11 Ayman al-Zawahiri should appear on al-Jazeera television speaking about terrorist operations against America. None should also find it strange then that al-Zawahiri's words were preceded by just as few days with words, actions and deeds of President Vladimir Putin (I should say Tsar because he rules Russia by decree these days) of Russia. Besides being the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin is also a long time FSB/KGB officer.

For further information on this incredib le information I turn now to an article written by Mr. J.R. Nyquist in July of 2002 entitled Ayman al-Zawahiri's Russian Adventure .Mr. Nyquist, whose website contains outstanding intellectual thought and research on this and other subject matter of your immediate consideration and concern, had this to day in the article I reference above:

"An inconsistency in the story of Zawahiri's Russian adventure also appears in the fact that he did not simply go to "independent" Chechnya, but was arrested after crossing over into Russian-held Dagestan. In addition, Higgins and Cullison tell us that Zawahiri arrived in Russia after visiting China where he had money dealings with a mainland Chinese bank in Guangdong province. One ought to ask what kind of Islamist sets up a command center in Bulgaria, does banking in China and pays extended visits to Russia? "

Nyquist continues: " Radical Islam was long ago infiltrated by Moscow's agents -- as evidenced by East German and Cuban support for the Saudi Islamists who attacked the Grand Mosque in 1979, as well as the KGB's clandestine role in provoking the Iranian hostage crisis during the Carter administration (see Bodansky's Bin Laden: The Man Who Declared War on America, p. 9). It is therefore unlikely that the Russians would fail to identify Zawahiri (as he was the most important Egyptian terrorist in the Islamist movement). They knew they had an Arab in custody. Any Arabist in the Russian intelligence service would be able to tell an Egyptian from a local yokel. Furthermore, since Moscow was secretly supporting the Serbs against the Bosnians in Yugoslavia, the Kremlin could not have missed Zawahiri's activities in organizing resistance to the Moscow-backed Yugoslav central government. But things are not so simple in "former" communist countries. As with the Chechen War, the civil war following the breakup of Yugoslavia has an interesting pre-history in the l iterature of Russian grand strategy."

I urge the reader to read that article by Mr. Nyquist in full, several times in fact until its profundity finally hits home. That profundity that I speak of can best be surmised with one final sentence from JR:

Given Zawahiri's travels to Russia and China, given the full context of Russia's double game in Chechnya (described in last week's column), we ought to entertain the possibility that China and Russia secretly supported the terrorists who attacked America on 9/11.

And that Ladies and Gentlemen bring us to the here and now -- August, September and October 2004 -- and the events we are currently living through and which will shape our world in ways we can hardly fathom, yet I see will unquestionably be The Uncontrollable Paradigm Shift of World War IV.

Part III:  The Chechen Connection

It is my belief that one of the direct causes of the end of the Cold War (WWIII) in addition to the massive defense build-up of the U.S. Reagan Administration was the clandestinely controlled disintegration of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This intricate plan of deception can be found in two related and sequential books on the subject by the highest-ranking KGB operative ever to defect to the West, Mr. Anatoliy Golitsyn. His works entitled "New Lies For Old" and "The Perestroika Deception" are uncanny in their "predictions" -- which aren't really predictions as much are they are informed insight and direct knowledge. One of the key points made by Golitsyn was that there would be a staged ollapse of Communism in Eastern Europe and in the USSR itself. This clearly did occur as forecast by Golitsyn, but the proof in the pudding is contained in a quote by Mikhail Gorbachev in a speech made to the Soviet Politboro in 1987:

"Gentlemen, comrades, do not be concerned about all you hear about glasnost and perestroika and democracy in the coming years. These are primarily for outward consumption. There will be no significant internal change within the Soviet Union, other than for cosmetic purposes. Our purpose is to disarm the Americans and let them fall asleep."

Indeed, and a great many of us have been slumbering ever since. However, in recent years many of us have awoken to the reality of this deception and the words of writers such as Golitsyn, Nemets, Lunev, Noikov, Nyquist and others have served as a everlasting tablet of Maximum Strength NoDoz. But we also have current events with which to use as indications of the continuing plot whose ultimate objective it is to subjugate America within a world order of totalitarianist socialism. The events in Russia of the past month which we are all witnessing, but perhaps not paying attention to or understanding completely for what they really are, are the greatest indicator we have that the plan is in its final phase of execution. The false front of what has been the political situatin in Russia is now actively being scrapped by the real power in Russia the KGB and its current head, Vladimir Putin.

One of the tools of the effort as has been mentioned earlier is terrorism, and the USSR is the architect of the terrorism we continue to face. This terrorist implement has also been used within Russia itself. There are strong indications that one of the principle Chechen separatist leaders is a Russian GRU agent. Concerning the school siege in Beslan, Russia, Shamill Basaev is reported in Russian -- and subsequently in the West -- media as claiming responsibility for that atrocity. Basaev was also blamed for the hostage situation at the Nord-Ost musical performance in the Moscow theater incident of 2002. Basaev tells a different story which can be found in The Jamestown Foundation website, and I quote:

"Basaev said that the original target of the October raid on Moscow had not been the "Nord-Ost" musical but the buildings of the Russian parliament. Each of the two houses of parliament (the Duma and the Council of the Federation) was to have been seized by twenty guerrillas. His account claimed that the detonators brought into the theater by the hostage-takers had turned out to be nonfunctional, as had the detonators in the hands of four women rebels who had remained outside the theater. These four women, he wrote, had managed to return to Chechnya, where he had personally spoken with them. According to Basaev, he and his lieutenants are still investigating what they clearly see as an act of deliberate sabotage. In their view, someone must have substituted non-working detonators for those originally supplied, and they are now trying to identify the possible traitor within their own ranks."

Another recent event was the granting of political asylum by the United Kingdom of another Chechen whom Russia claims to be a terrorist, Akhmed Zakaev. Zakaev is a political representative of Chechnya to the UK. In his report on the Moscow theater slaughter he reported that "the Nord-Ost raid had indeed been planned by Basaev, but that it had then come under the control of the Russian special services. But unlike Politkovskaya, Zakaev opined that it was the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) rather than the intelligence arm of the Russian military (the GRU) that had conducted this successful infiltration. In Zakaev's view, which was reported by the website on April 28, Basaev lost control of the hostage-taking party when it entered Moscow. He identified Terkibaev by name, claiming that it was he who secured the rebel group's safe passage into Moscow and who chose the theater as the object of the group's attack. According to Zakaev's version, Terkibaev then slipped out of the theater before it was stormed by federal commandos."

In light of the above, are we to take at face value reports coming from Russian media that Shamil Basaev conducted the siege and mass murder at the Beslan school? I think not. Yet the results of that operation are manifest in the consolidation of absolute power by Vladimir Putin and the KGB in the Kremlin. They will also be manifest in what I believe will be a major Russian military move to re-conquer the entire Caucasus region. The master puppeteers in the Kremlin have decided to adapt the legitimate US policy of pre-empting terrorism with forward deployment of military forces and engagement of the terrorist enemy and the states which support them to their own purposes, and they are masking this coming conquest with the charades we have seeing since August the twin airliner disasters, Moscow subway bombings and Beslan. There is also raw intelligence information directly from the mouth of a Russian general that the US Pentagon is actively planning to detonate a nuclear weapon in the Moscow underground and that recent bombings there were but a dry run. As events continue to unfold in the coming days please keep that in mind because World War IV is well underway and an event such as a "rouge" nuke going off in the US or Russia will be the event  which triggers the uncontrollable paradigm shift of your current understanding and of the war itself. Rest assured that if a nuclear weapon is detonated in the United States or in Russia -- the weapon will most certainly be of Russian manufacture and the reason for the detonation was hatched in the Kremlin as part of the final phase of their operation to destroy America.

Sean Osborne, Network Analyst
Northeast Intelligence Network